Seminar abstract: The metropolitan passenger transport landscape is shifting due to a combination of technological and social developments which enable both service providers and service users to become increasingly adaptive. Service providers can manage their resources to better cater for prevailing demand patterns, while service users can adjust their behaviour in response to real-time information. In this seminar, I will present our work on modelling system dynamics and the interaction between supply and demand under uncertainty in relation to tactical planning (e.g. fleet size and composition, frequency setting) and real-time management (e.g. trip dispatcher, disruption management) of fixed line-based as well as flexible on-demand services.
How do disruptions propagate in public transport networks? for how long and how far away from the source are passengers affected?
Model results are evaluated for the Stockholm network using a dynamic non-equilibrium assignment model.
[News headline: Bomb threat against train travel; Travel chaos following two false bomb alarms; photo from Stockholm Central station]
I have been interviewed by the following media outlets:
OV Pro [in Dutch, below]
Other news items featuring insights form these interviews:
Is satisfaction the sum of its parts? Behavioral scientists such as Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely provide ample evidence that human experience is not a simple summation of its parts. Different biases such as recency and salience effects have been observed.
How is it then with travel satisfaction? Is satisfaction with the door-to-door journey simply the sum of its parts? does the last part determine the overall impression? or does the worst experience loom over anything else?
Service reliability is often considered only at the operational management phase, while services are assumed to be perfectly reliable at the strategic and tactical planning phases. However, service (un)reliability has consequences on the effective frequency and thus on deficiencies in capacity allocation and passenger waiting times and on-board comfort.
Determining the dispatching headways of bus services in a city network is a multi-criteria problem that typically involves balancing between passenger demand coverage and operational costs.
Together with Costas Gkiotsalitis from NEC Labratories Europe, we develop and apply a reliability-based optimization framework for setting the dispatching headways of bus lines that considers historical operational data and is aware of the passenger waiting time variability at each stop and how it is affected when changing the planned dispatching headways.
We hope that this work will contribute to a new generation of tactical planning methods that account for service uncertainty.