Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies

When introducing several measures  to prioritize public transport services (i.e.dedicated lanes, holding control and boarding from all the rear door) at the same time – is the total effect larger than its parts?  In a new paper with Jens West, we assess the implementation of several bus service improvement measures in a simulation model. We then analyze the effect of isolated and combinations of measures, and validates the model using field experiment data from Stockholm. We found that the three tested measures exercised negative synergy effects, with their combined effect being smaller than the sum of their marginal contributions, except for headway-based holding, which exercised positive synergy effects with the two other measures.

Click here for the full paper

(agency’s campaign signs in Swedish advising passengers that they can also board the bus from the rear door when boarding bus line 4)

hEART2017 conference

I participate in the hEART conference which take place this week in the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa.

After hosting it last year in Delft, it is great to attend it in the campus where I have studied for four years and excited to share the experience gained in the following studies:

  1. “Coordinating Merging Public Transport Operations Using Holding Control Strategies” presented by Georgios Laskaris
  2. “Tactical Service Design and Vehicle Allocation Optimization“, which I present
  3. “An Integrated Trip Assignment Model for Passenger Rail Systems” presented by Flurin Hänseler
  4. “Traveler’s Perceived Safety at Bus Stops in Stockholm, Sweden”, presented by Roberto Fernandez Abenoza

MT-ITS 2017

Will be attending MT-ITS 2017, the 5th IEEE International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems, together with colleagues with whom I collaborated on public transport -related studies.

I am involved in the following contributions that will be presented in the upcoming conference:

  • Analysis of Network-wide Transit Passenger Flows based on Principal Component Analysis. (Presenter: Ding Luo)
  • Simulating the Effects of Real-time Crowding Information in Public Transport Networks (Presenter: Arek Drabicki)
  • Impact of Relocation Strategies for a Fleet of Shared Automated Vehicles on Service Efficiency, Effectiveness and Externalities (Presenter: Konstanze Winter)
  • Real-time Short-turning in High Frequency Bus Services based on Passenger Cost (Presenter: David Leffler)
  • Measuring Spill-over Effects of Disruptions in Public Transport Networks (I will present work performed with Sanmay Shelat)

Looking forward to my first MT-ITS experience!

Added on 16-8-2017: links to all conference papers are available on the Publications page.

Prediction for proactive mitigation of bus bunching

 

A new paper proposes a data driven method to predict Bus Bunching in real-time followed by the selection and deployment of a corrective action based on the assessment of bunching likelihoods. The method was validated using one-year data of 18 real-world bus routes. This combined prediction-control approach can contribute to more proactive bus operations and improved service reliability.

 

Link to the full paper

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Exposing the role of exposure in public transport risk analysis

In the last several years, I have investigated the impact of service disruptions in public transport networks. In a series of network topology and dynamic transit assignment studies, I have looked into indicators of link criticality, measures of impacts on system performance, mitigation value of real-time information provision, identifying strategic links for increased capacity and the robustness value of new links and extension plans.

One common limitation to all of these studies was the lack of information on the probabilities associated with disruptions. This prevented a complete risk analysis and assessing the (e.g. annual) costs and benefits associated with disruptions and mitigation measures.

Together with Menno Yap and Niels van Oort, the frequency and duration of various disruption types on each public transport mode (train, metro, tram and bus) were estimated based on a unique dataset. We also identify which is the primary predictor of each variable to allow researchers and professionals in other contexts to estimate disruption probabilities in the lack of local data.

TramDHdisrupted

We propose a method for embedding link exposure into the identification and evaluation of critical links and perform a risk analysis for the multi-modal public transport network of the Rotterdam The Hague Metropolitan Area. By comparing the results with the conventional measures, we demonstrate that disregarding exposure risks prioritizing heavily utilized links instead of those which are actually the weakest.

Click here for the link to the full paper.